462 research outputs found

    The evolution of the global aerosol system in a transient climate simulation from 1860 to 2100

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    The evolution of the global aerosol system from 1860 to 2100 is investigated through a transient atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Model climate simulation with interactively coupled atmospheric aerosol and oceanic biogeochemistry modules. The microphysical aerosol module HAM incorporates the major global aerosol cycles with prognostic treatment of their composition, size distribution, and mixing state. Based on an SRES A1B emission scenario, the global mean sulfate burden is projected to peak in 2020 while black carbon and particulate organic matter show a lagged peak around 2070. From present day to future conditions the anthropogenic aerosol burden shifts generally from the northern high-latitudes to the developing low-latitude source regions with impacts on regional climate. Atmospheric residence- and aging-times show significant alterations under varying climatic and pollution conditions. Concurrently, the aerosol mixing state changes with an increasing aerosol mass fraction residing in the internally mixed accumulation mode. The associated increase in black carbon causes a more than threefold increase of its co-single scattering albedo from 1860 to 2100. Mid-visible aerosol optical depth increases from pre-industrial times, predominantly from the aerosol fine fraction, peaks at 0.26 around the sulfate peak in 2020 and maintains a high level thereafter, due to the continuing increase in carbonaceous aerosols. The global mean anthropogenic top of the atmosphere clear-sky short-wave direct aerosol radiative perturbation intensifies to −1.1 W m^−2 around 2020 and weakens after 2050 to −0.6 W m^−2, owing to an increase in atmospheric absorption. The demonstrated modifications in the aerosol residence- and aging-times, the microphysical state, and radiative properties challenge simplistic approaches to estimate the aerosol radiative effects from emission projections

    The Evolution of Λ\Lambda Black Holes in the Mini-Superspace Approximation of Loop Quantum Gravity

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    Using the improved quantization technique to the mini-superspace approximation of loop quantum gravity, we study the evolution of black holes supported by a cosmological constant. The addition of a cosmological constant allows for classical solutions with planar, cylindrical, toroidal and higher genus black holes. Here we study the quantum analog of these space-times. In all scenarios studied, the singularity present in the classical counter-part is avoided in the quantized version and is replaced by a bounce, and in the late evolution, a series of less severe bounces. Interestingly, although there are differences during the evolution between the various symmetries and topologies, the evolution on the other side of the bounce asymptotes to space-times of Nariai-type, with the exception of the planar black hole analyzed here, whose TT-RR=constant subspaces seem to continue expanding in the long term evolution. For the other cases, Nariai-type universes are attractors in the quantum evolution, albeit with different parameters. We study here the quantum evolution of each symmetry in detail.Comment: 26 pages, 7 figures.V2 has typos corrected, references added, and a more careful analysis of the planar case. Accepted for publication in Physical Review

    Simulation and analysis of in vitro DNA evolution

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    We study theoretically the in vitro evolution of a DNA sequence by binding to a transcription factor. Using a simple model of protein-DNA binding and available binding constants for the Mnt protein, we perform large-scale, realistic simulations of evolution starting from a single DNA sequence. We identify different parameter regimes characterized by distinct evolutionary behaviors. For each regime we find analytical estimates which agree well with simulation results. For small population sizes, the DNA evolutional path is a random walk on a smooth landscape. While for large population sizes, the evolution dynamics can be well described by a mean-field theory. We also study how the details of the DNA-protein interaction affect the evolution.Comment: 11 pages, 11 figures. Submitted to PNA

    How to compare modeled fire dynamics with charcoal records?

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    Towards a spin foam model description of black hole entropy

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    We propose a way to describe the origin of black hole entropy in the spin foam models of quantum gravity. This stimulates a new way to study the relation of spin foam models and loop quantum gravity.Comment: 5 pages, 1 figur

    Black hole entropy for the general area spectrum

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    We consider the possibility that the horizon area is expressed by the general area spectrum in loop quantum gravity and calculate the black hole entropy by counting the degrees of freedom in spin-network states related to its area. Although the general area spectrum has a complex expression, we succeeded in obtaining the result that the black hole entropy is proportional to its area as in previous works where the simplified area formula has been used. This gives new values for the Barbero-Immirzi parameter (γ=0.5802...or0.7847...\gamma =0.5802... \mathrm{or} 0.7847...) which are larger than that of previous works.Comment: 5 page

    Large Scale Structures, Symmetry, and Universality in Sandpiles

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    We introduce a sandpile model where, at each unstable site, all grains are transferred randomly to downstream neighbors. The model is local and conservative, but not Abelian. This does not appear to change the universality class for the avalanches in the self-organized critical state. It does, however, introduce long-range spatial correlations within the metastable states. We find large scale networks of occupied sites whose density vanishes in the thermodynamic limit, for d>1.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

    The aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM

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    The aerosol-climate modelling system ECHAM5-HAM is introduced. It is based on a flexible microphysical approach and, as the number of externally imposed parameters is minimised, allows the application in a wide range of climate regimes. ECHAM5-HAM predicts the evolution of an ensemble of microphysically interacting internally- and externally-mixed aerosol populations as well as their size-distribution and composition. The size-distribution is represented by a superposition of log-normal modes. In the current setup, the major global aerosol compounds sulfate (SU), black carbon (BC), particulate organic matter (POM), sea salt (SS), and mineral dust (DU) are included. The simulated global annual mean aerosol burdens (lifetimes) for the year 2000 are for SU: 0.80 Tg(S) (3.9 days), for BC: 0.11 Tg (5.4 days), for POM: 0.99 Tg (5.4 days), for SS: 10.5 Tg (0.8 days), and for DU: 8.28 Tg (4.6 days). An extensive evaluation with in-situ and remote sensing measurements underscores that the model results are generally in good agreement with observations of the global aerosol system. The simulated global annual mean aerosol optical depth (AOD) is with 0.14 in excellent agreement with an estimate derived from AERONET measurements (0.14) and a composite derived from MODIS-MISR satellite retrievals (0.16). Regionally, the deviations are not negligible. However, the main patterns of AOD attributable to anthropogenic activity are reproduced

    Comparing modelled fire dynamics with charcoal records for the Holocene

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    An earth system model of intermediate complexity (CLIMate and BiosphERe – CLIMBER-2) and a land surface model (JSBACH), which dynamically represent vegetation, are used to simulate natural fire dynamics through the last 8000 yr. Output variables of the fire model (burned area and fire carbon emissions) are used to compare model results with sediment-based charcoal reconstructions. Several approaches for processing model output are also tested. Charcoal data are reported in Z-scores with a base period of 8000–200 BP in order to exclude the strong anthropogenic forcing of fire during the last two centuries. The model–data comparison reveals a robust correspondence in fire activity for most regions considered, while for a few regions, such as Europe, simulated and observed fire histories show different trends. The difference between modelled and observed fire activity may be due to the absence of anthropogenic forcing (e.g. human ignitions and suppression) in the model simulations, and also due to limitations inherent to modelling fire dynamics. The use of spatial averaging (or Z-score processing) of model output did not change the directions of the trends. However, Z-score-transformed model output resulted in higher rank correlations with the charcoal Z-scores in most regions. Therefore, while both metrics are useful, processing model output as Z-scores is preferable to areal averaging when comparing model results to transformed charcoal records
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